Geo-Strategy Update #5: The Universal Law of Game Theory
Date: July 12, 2025
Source: Professor Tang YouTube Video Transcript
Topic: Middle East Geopolitics Through Game Theory Analysis
Core Thesis
Professor Tang presents a game theory framework for understanding the current Middle East conflict, identifying four key factions in the anti-Iran coalition and introducing a "universal law of game theory" that explains power dynamics throughout history.
The Four Factions Driving Middle East Policy
1. Christian Zionists
"The Christian Zionists who are trying to achieve biblical prophecy."
2. Zionists
"The Zionists who want to achieve the greater Israel project which they believe is a promised land that Yahweh gave to the Israelite people as part of the covenant together."
3. Global Financial Elite
"The global financial elite, Wall Street, city of London... if they're able to control Iran, the shirt of Hummus, they're able to control not only the vast oil reserves of Iran, but also global trade, thus negating the BRICS project, thus negating China's silk and road project."
4. American Empire/Military-Industrial Complex
"The American Empire, the military industrial complex, the deep state... they are first and foremost interested in maintaining American hegemony."
The Mountain Metaphor
Tang uses a powerful metaphor to explain how these factions collaborate without direct coordination:
"Let's just say that there's a mountain somewhere and on this mountain people believe that God lives on this mountain. Now the Christian Zionists want to build a road to this mountaintop in order to be with God. Unfortunately, there are people who live on this mountain. They need to be exterminated. A war has to be fought. But it's all for the greater good because they will be able to be with God."
The Cynical Partnership
"So it's a cynical partnership between the Christian Zionist and the Zionist and they both need each other for now until they reach the mountain top. Then... their real god will recognize their faith and kill the Christian Zionist."
The Universal Law of Game Theory
The Formula
"Mass times energy times coordination. All right? So mass is just the number of people times energy which is the level of motivation of these people times coordination which is the ability of these people to work together to achieve their end."
The Weighting System
"Coordination is the most important factor and it's weighted at least three times as much as mass. Then you have energy... energy is second most important and it's weighted twice as much as mass."
On Energy and Motivation
The Hardest Words to Say
"The three hardest words to say for a human being is I am wrong. To say I'm wrong is to negate yourself, to negate your ego, to admit that you have failings."
Measuring True Energy
"Energy is a measure of motivation. And we can measure motivation by a group's openness to accepting its limitations, its failings."
The Power of Subconscious Coordination
Why Conspiracies Fail
"Subconscious coordination is much more powerful than conscious coordination. It allows for frictionless cooperation and allows for possible deniability and allows for secrecy."
The Problem with Conscious Coordination
"Everyone has an ego. Everyone is trying to maximize his or her self-interest in a conspiracy and that immediately leads to friction, conflict, debate."
The Most Powerful Stories in Human History
The Three Universal Stories
"Most people will have remembered three stories. The first story is Plato's allegory of the cave. The second story is the crucifixion and resurrection of Jesus. The third story is the second coming of Jesus."
Why These Stories Matter
"These three stories that are most memorable, it's really just one story. And it's appealing to us because as humans, we're born with three questions embedded in our hearts, in our soul. The first question is where did we come from? Second question is why are we here? Third question is where are we going?"
The Power of Christian Zionism
Why It's Dominant
"That's why Christian Zionism is so powerful because it's the most powerful story out there. That's why there's so many Christians. That's why Christian Zionists are the most energetic, the most motivated, the most committed people that you can ever meet."
The Sacrificial Commitment
"As a Christian Zionist, you want to achieve the story. It is so compelling, so powerful to you as a person. In fact, you're willing to sacrifice your own life in order to achieve the story. That's how beautiful it is."
Historical Precedent: Muhammad as Jewish Messiah
The Revolutionary Framework
Tang presents a controversial historical interpretation:
"Muhammad was the Jewish Messiah. And the Jews were looking to him to lead them into final victory against the Byzantines and the Antichrist Heraclius."
The Three Unifying Messages
"All he had to do was say three things and he would unite the entire world behind him... The first thing he had to say was, 'I am the Jewish Messiah. I'm the fulfillment of the prophecy.'"
"Second thing... 'We are all the children of Abraham. Jews, Christians, Muslims, we are all descended from Abraham. And as such, we are all the children of God.'"
"The third thing... 'All these religious differences are idiotic... We are all the children of God and therefore we can all celebrate God in our own way.'"
The Emerging Übermensch
The Game-Changer
"According to game theory, when it seems like they structure the game, when there seems to be a trajectory... what will happen is a new player will emerge who see the contours of the game being played and he will manipulate events and change the course of this game to benefit himself and his group."
Putin as the World Historical Figure
"According to game theory now that the game... the structure of the game has... been... is pretty clear the überman will now emerge and in fact today we do have the übermans and this übermans will manipulate the game in order to achieve his vision... And this person's name is Vladimir Putin."
Key Predictions
- Christian Zionist Dominance: Christian Zionists will emerge as the dominant power in the Middle East coalition
- Ground Invasion of Iran: They will force the United States to use ground troops for regime change in Iran
- Multipolar World Order: Four dominant nation-states will emerge: US (Western Hemisphere), Germany (Europe), Japan (Southeast Asia), Israel (Middle East)
- Putin's Game-Changing Role: Vladimir Putin will manipulate the entire game structure to achieve his vision
Analytical Framework Significance
This analysis provides a unique lens for understanding geopolitical dynamics by:
- Identifying the motivational structures behind different factions
- Explaining how coordination can occur without direct conspiracy
- Demonstrating the power of narrative/story in driving human behavior
- Applying game theory principles to predict future developments
- Connecting historical patterns to contemporary conflicts
The framework suggests that understanding the deeper motivational and coordination dynamics of different groups provides more predictive power than traditional geopolitical analysis focused solely on material interests.