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Professor Jiang Xueqin on the Collapse of Pax Americana and Coming Global Chaos

Date: September 24, 2025
Source: Uberboyo Interview with Jiang Xueqin (@PredictiveHistory)
Format: Transcript Summary with Direct Quotes

Core Thesis: The End of American Hegemony​

Professor Jiang Xueqin delivers a stark assessment of global order collapse, predicting the end of Pax Americana and the onset of multipolar chaos.

"I think we are seeing the end of the Pax Americana. I think we're seeing the end of American hijgemony and what will happen afterwards it's all up in the air but I personally believe it'll be complete chaos. I think we're moving towards a multipolar world. I think it'll be very difficult for Russia or for China or for any power really to replace the Pax Americana. So the world is headed towards a steep decline. So buckle up guys."

China's Economic Strength vs. Soft Power Weakness​

Jiang acknowledges China's economic fundamentals while highlighting its critical vulnerability:

"My argument is this... that power is really about narrative about ideology. It's about soft power... The problem with China is it's never been that strong in terms of soft power. It's never been able to articulate the American dream individualism, liberty in the way that America has been able to articulate through its movies, through its pop songs, through its history."

America's Debt Crisis​

"America right now, everyone's in debt, right? you have $37 trillion national debt, but then you look at the middle class and the average American altogether they have 17 trillion dollars in debt. That that's about like, you know, half a million of debt for every American citizen, which is just ridiculous."

The Mythology Problem: Why China Won't Lead​

Jiang's most profound insight concerns the role of mythology in global leadership:

"Every nation has its own distinctive mythology has its own distinctive worldview. And depending on its worldview we can predict the behavior of that nation. So China does not is not interested in military confrontation but Russia is Germany is America is because of their worldview."

China's Historical Weakness​

"China built a wall called the great wall. Why? Because it did not want to deal with the world. So China just wants to be left alone basically... China doesn't have a narrative where you know the Chinese people dominate the world and Chinese the Chinese people become the leaders of humanity. The Americans do, the British do, the Germans have, the Germans do, the Russians do, but not the Chinese."

The Religious Dimension​

"What people don't understand is that China has not been a real coherent civilization ever since the fall of the high dynasty in about 500 CE... for most of so ever since the tongue dynasty for the past 2,000 years China has been ruled by foreign conquerors and as a result we've seen a massive delusion of China's mythology of the Chinese ethnic identity."

The Demographic Catastrophe​

Both speakers identify aging populations as a civilization-ending crisis:

"The biggest problem is the demographic crisis, the aging crisis... Similar to us. Even worse because in China, there's just deep rooted respect for the elderly. And so in the west, you'll put the elderly in nursing homes, but in China, the entire family is centered around the elderly... No one's going to be working because everyone's going to be taking care of the elderly."

The Boomer Power Structure​

"The boomer generation have all the power in the western world because first of all they're the largest demographic... Second thing is they have all the wealth... and the third thing is they're politically active. So because they're the most powerful political faction in the western world, they can dictate policy."

Historical Pattern of Elder Leadership in War​

"Old people have absolutely no problem sending young people to their deaths in war... If you go back and you look at the pelletian war between Athens and Sparta, it was basically old people sending young people to die because old people wanted to feel good about themselves. They wanted to maintain the idea of empire."

The Bank of England: Blueprint for Financial Alchemy​

Jiang provides a masterful analysis of the financial system's historical foundations:

"The bank of England is really interesting because it marks a revolution in human thought... you're able now to go 100 years in the future and just harness future potential future labor potential and then just use it for today to finance all these wars against Napoleon."

Three Factors Behind the Bank of England​

  1. Dutch Wealth: "The Dutch Republic was tremendously wealthy because it was able to control the spice trade in the East Indies... they needed to put all this resources all this gold into a safe haven and that safe haven of course was England"

  2. Calvinist Psychology: "With the rise of Calvinism and the idea of double pestination... you had to justify yourself through wealth accumulation. So now people were happy to put all their wealth in the bank for generations. And that never really happened in human history before."

  3. Parliamentary Sovereignty: "Before if you were a bank you just lent your money to the king... but now that parliament is a sovereign power in England then you're lending your money now to the nation state of England... every one of them is obligated to pay you back."

The Pyramid Scheme Nature​

"This pyramid scheme is based on idea and the idea is that the sun will never set on Britain. It's the idea that Britain is invincible and it's inevitable that it was the destiny of Britain to actually conquer the world... but now that Britain doesn't really have a military and now that Russia is destroying NATO in Ukraine... this idea of the invisibility the ineability of the Anglo-American Empire It's faded."

China as America's Creation​

A provocative thesis on China's true relationship with America:

"What people don't understand is China's perfectly being is perfectly happy being subservant to the Anglo-American Empire. In many ways, China is the greatest experiment of the Anglo American Empire because in the 80s, China was this isolated poor nation. And it was for American technology, for American financing, for American knowhow that China was able to build up its manufacturing base."

Cultural Penetration​

"The soft power conquest of China, I mean, it can't be overstated... I think that if you talk to an average Chinese person, that person could probably tell you more about American popular culture than he or she can talk about his own cultural identity."

Prediction of Rapprochement​

"I don't think that USChina this relationship will end up in conflict... my prediction is with next year possibly earlier next six months you have a major reportment between United States and China."

The Coming Multipolar Chaos​

Jiang predicts multiple theaters of conflict:

"You will have multiple theaters of war... you'll see growing chaos around the world and this could last for a very long time because once the Pax American has fallen it's very hard to think of another nation that could replace the Pax Americana."

Specific Predictions​

  • Iran War: "There's talk right now that Israel is about to relaunch its air strikes against Iran... America will employ ground troops against Iran"
  • Ukraine Collapse: "The rumors are that Ukraine has lost anywhere between one to two million fighting men. Morale has collapsed"
  • Western Civil Unrest: "It's entirely possible in Britain in France in these places you it could evolve into a race war"

Western Authoritarianism: The Kafkaesque State​

Jiang's personal experience in Canada reveals the emerging totalitarian structure:

"I think the West is heading towards authoritarianism, possibly even totalitarianism... You're dealing with this nebulous, ambiguous, shadowy bureaucracy. You don't not you never know what the rules are. So it's hard for you to negotiate your own individual rights, it's hard for you to assert your own individual agency against bureaucracy because you don't know where you stand."

The Safety Tyranny​

"What's happening is that this is what happens when you have a massive growth in bureaucracy... the bureaucracy needs to justify its existence. But the rule of a bureaucracy is don't make mistakes. Don't and you the way you make mistakes is by telling people your intentions."

The Virtue Trap​

"One thing that really annoys me is this hypocrisy in the west because as the police are punishing you they expect you to thank them because the police are virtuous, right? They're only punishing you for your own good."

The Japan Wild Card​

Jiang identifies Japan as the dark horse of East Asian power:

"In East Asia, it's Japan that will the most powerful nation for the next 50 years because even though it's a smaller population and has less resources than China, it does have its own unique mythology... the moment they face a threat to the nation, they come together as a people and they make the changes necessary in order to adapt to the modern world."

Potential Euthanasia Solution​

"You might have a situation where the elderly chooses to off themselves because they care about the survival of their nation state. They care about the survival of their culture... you might have mass euthanasia in Japan and I actually see that happening in maybe 10 years time once it did that happen in China... never."

The Israel Factor: Eschatological Empire​

Jiang's most controversial prediction involves Israeli expansion:

"I think Pax Judea is very likely... my prediction is that United States will go into Iran and my prediction is that Iran that America will lose this war and they'll be forced out of the Middle East. Once America leaves, it's very easy for Israel to create the Pax Judeica because it doesn't really have a peer adversary after America leaves."

Netanyahu's Vision​

"Netanyahu has said that Israel in the future will be the new Sparta... we're moving towards continuous war, neverending war, which which is what will happen if you destroy the alex mosque."

Sabbatai Zevi's Influence​

"I think Sabbatai Zevi is the most important historical figure no one's heard of... what Sabbatai Zevi did was he converted himself which redeem all those who have converted to him before. So he is the Jesus of the Judeaic movement... now you have a new idea in religion that focuses on faith through transgression."

The Civilizational Framework​

Jiang provides a meta-analysis of civilization and power:

"Without mythology without a coherent storytelling tradition you're not going to go and you're not going to go and conquer the world... so I don't see either China or India being global hegemons. I don't think they have the cultural soft power to become cultural hegeimons."

The Religious Imperative​

"What underpins all society is the religious worldview... The problem with this is that China is an atheist country and it's always been an atheist country. So the Chinese people are extremely materialistic people and that's why they're always looking to United States."

American Cultural Dominance in China​

"These movies were promagating the brilliance of American culture, American liberty, American individuality, American heroism. And that became in part of the Chinese historical memory... it's crazy, but I think that if you talk to an average Chinese person, that person could probably tell you more about American popular culture than he or she can talk about his own cultural identity."

The German-Russian Alliance Prediction​

Jiang foresees a major geopolitical realignment:

"I have said that Germany in Europe is the best position to take advantage of the collapse of the Pax Americana. I think in maybe 10 20 years time you will see a realignment of Europe so that Germany and Russia become allies."

Final Assessment: Ideas vs. Power​

Jiang concludes with a philosophical observation about the nature of global change:

"I don't think secret societies run the world. I think ideas run the world... you could have the 10 most powerful people in the world get together in a room... and say, you know what, we recognize the failings of our society... let's work towards a common good. let's get rid of materialism. let's bring back peace and prosperity. Guess what guys? A day later, all 10 will be assassinated... I think there are certain ideas that have a stronghold over society."

Key Themes:

  • Multipolar chaos replacing American hegemony
  • China's economic strength undermined by cultural weakness
  • Demographic collapse driving civilizational crisis
  • Financial systems as sophisticated pyramid schemes
  • Mythology and religion as essential to imperial power
  • Western descent into bureaucratic authoritarianism
  • Multiple coming wars across different theaters
  • Japan as the surprise winner in East Asia
  • Potential Israeli regional dominance
  • The primacy of ideas over material power in shaping history

This interview presents one of the most comprehensive and pessimistic assessments of global order collapse, delivered by someone positioned between Eastern and Western perspectives, with particular insight into Chinese internal dynamics and historical patterns of imperial transition.