Professor Jiang: Predictive History and the Convergence of End Times
Date: August 6, 2025
Source: Propaganda & Co Interview - "Predictive History and the End of the World"
Subject: Professor Jiang Xueqin on geopolitical analysis, eschatological convergence, and strategic forecasting
Core Framework: Predictive History
Professor Jiang presents a revolutionary approach to historical analysis that demands empirical validation:
"My argument is that if history is done correctly, if the framework for understanding of history is correct, then we should be able to do three things. The first is we should be able to connect the past, which is to say we should be able to turn the history into a coherent narrative about how we came into being. Second is we should be able to explain the present. Why is the world the way it is today? The third thing is to be able to predict future events... So if the framework for history is able to accomplish all three then we know that we're approaching the truth."
This methodology transforms history from academic exercise to strategic intelligence tool.
Iran-US War Prediction: Historical Precedent as Prophet
Jiang's viral prediction of the Iran-Israel conflict stemmed from recognizing ancient diplomatic protocols:
"What clued me in that the conflict would arise between the United States and Iran is that in January 2020 Donald Trump when he in his first term he ordered an assassination of General Soleimani... that was an extremely important geopolitical event and I don't think that people really understood how important it was because historically in that region if you kill an ambassador that's a direct provocation of war."
He draws the parallel to ancient Greece:
"The classic example is when Persia invaded Greece the mainland Greece in 490 BC... the reason why Persia launched this massive invasion of the Greek mainland was because Athens and Sparta killed their ambassadors they literally threw their ambassadors into the well and when you do that in that world then that's a declaration of war so the United States basically by killing General Soleimani declared war on Iran."
Eschatology as Prime Mover of Geopolitics
Perhaps Jiang's most provocative thesis is that religious end-times beliefs drive empire, not vice versa:
"What I argue in my videos is that eschatology is a prime mover of geopolitics. Now, a lot of people will say that's incorrect. It's empire that uses eschatology in order to advance its own material interests. But I disagree. I think it's reverse. I think that empires come about in order to achieve certain eschatologies and that was true for the British Empire and that's also true for the American empire."
Unholy Alliances: When Enemies Share Goals
The convergence of opposing eschatologies creates unexpected cooperation:
"Let's look at the example between Judaic eschatology and Christian Zionist eschatology. They both agree that when Israel is most threatened in the war of Gog and Magog, when the world is about to destroy Israel, Jesus will return that the Messiah will come. In the Jewish eschatology, the Messiah will enslave the Christians. In the Christian Zionist eschatology, Jesus will return and kill a third of the Jews and convert a third of the Jews. So, it's very cynical, but they're bitter enemies, but they're working towards the same goal, which is the end times."
Game Theory Analysis: Why Ground War is Inevitable
Jiang uses game theory to predict seemingly irrational outcomes:
"If you're United States, then you definitely want to cement control over the Middle East for both trade purposes and for resources, right? Because Iran is basically the center of the world. If you control Iran, you control all global trade. You negate BRICS, you negate belt and road... you basically isolate Russia and China."
But Israel and Saudi Arabia have different calculations:
"If you're Israel and you're Saudi Arabia, you don't want to become a vassal to the American Empire... So in order for that to happen the United States needs to be destroyed. The United States needs to lose a ground war against Iran. So Saudi Arabia and Israel are both heavily invested in seeing a US ground invasion."
The Imperial Bureaucracy Problem
A devastating critique of American strategic capacity:
"The problem with the American military, with Washington DC, with the empire... is it's become a bureaucracy. And so it doesn't have the flexibility, the vision, the planning necessary in order to switch directions... The United States has lots of capacity to fight a conventional warfare and so that's why we're seeing this complete mess in Ukraine."
On failed military doctrine:
"Currently the US military doctrine is shock and awe... The problem though is that shock and awe is useless against a conventional army like Russia, Iran and China. And we know because of what's happening in Ukraine right now... it's failed miserably in Ukraine."
Putin's Grand Strategy: Overextending the Empire
Jiang argues Putin sees a historic opportunity:
"I think the real reason why Putin invaded Ukraine is he saw an opportunity to destroy once and for all the American empire. He saw the American empire was overextended. It was weak. It was confused. It has no political leadership. It has no vision for the future. Now's the time to strike."
Strategic sequencing won't work because:
"There's no way that Putin would ever agree to a peace deal to Ukraine because the idea of strategic sequencing is let's pause this war in Ukraine, go after Iran, then go after China, then come circle back and then go after Putin... So, why would Putin ever agree to say, 'Let's pause the warfare in Ukraine so the Americans can focus on Iran and then focus on China?'"
China: The Materialist Exception
Jiang's counterintuitive take on the China-Russia relationship:
"Everyone's saying that Putin is a junior partner to China. Putin doesn't think so. Russia doesn't think so... In fact, China has much more to fear from Russia than the United States."
Why China won't invade Taiwan:
"If China invades Taiwan, then everything I believe about the world is completely wrong... I do not believe under any circumstances China will invade Taiwan. The Chinese Communist Party is first and foremost concerned about regime stability."
The Corruption Economy
Jiang explains China's economic reality through a revealing joke about Olympic stadium construction:
"The local Beijing company said, 'It's very simple math.' Here's the math. 1 billion for you, 1 billion for me, and 1 billion for the Singaporeans to go build that stadium... That's the basis for the entire Chinese economy. That's why you see all these skyscrapers being built in China because it gives the corrupt officials a pretext to steal from the nation."
Religious Worldview as Geopolitical Determinant
A profound insight on alliance patterns:
"What underpins all society is the religious worldview... why Russia can sort of unite the Eurasian continent is that the Orthodox worldview aligns with the Muslim worldview and aligns with the Catholic worldview... The problem with this is that China is an atheist country and it's always been an atheist country. So the Chinese people are extremely materialistic people and that's why they're always looking to United States."
AI: The Profitable Illusion
Jiang's skeptical take on artificial intelligence:
"You cannot find an AI company that is profitable. OpenAI ChatGPT they lose money on every subscriber... This is one of the big open secrets about artificial intelligence. It's not profitable and the technology is not transformative in the way that we think it is but it is memory destructive. It is socially destructive."
On the investment frenzy:
"We've reached really the end stage of capitalism, right? It's monopoly capitalism where a few people have control all the money. The money has to go somewhere. So it goes into these big projects that cost trillions of dollars with a hope that it will transform society and remake the economy. But if it doesn't, it's not their problem. It's investor's problem."
The Five-Year Forecast
Jiang's stark predictions:
"I see these events happening... I do believe that the United States and Iran the conflict will escalate... Eventually Iran will close off the Strait of Hormuz. Eventually the Americans will send in ground troops to occupy the Hormuz and attempt regime change. Eventually Russia will attempt to take Odessa. Eventually, NATO will militarize and send in troops to defend Odessa. It'll be NATO's last stand. This will cause political upheaval, civil wars in Europe."
The Path Forward: Truth and Tools
Despite the dire predictions, Jiang offers hope through understanding:
"If my analytical model is correct then the world is headed towards war, chaos, collapse and in order for us to rebuild the world. First of all we have to imagine a better world... Second step is listen, we now have these tools, predictive history, game theory that allow us to better shape the world around us... And the third thing I think this is the most important is let's tell the truth."
Validation Stakes
Jiang puts his credibility on the line:
"I would be perfectly happy if none of these predictions happen because I have three kids and I want them to grow up in a safe world... I'll be perfectly happy to come back on your show if none of these things happen and say I'm an idiot and no one should ever take anything I say anymore because my entire understanding of history, geopolitics is wrong."
Key Insights Summary
- Eschatology drives geopolitics - Religious end-times beliefs create empires, not the reverse
- Historical patterns predict modern conflicts - Ancient diplomatic protocols still govern state behavior
- Game theory reveals counterintuitive alliances - Enemies may cooperate toward shared eschatological goals
- Imperial bureaucracy lacks strategic flexibility - American military doctrine is outdated and reactive
- China prioritizes regime stability over expansion - Economic fragility prevents Taiwan invasion
- Religious worldview determines alliance patterns - Materialist vs. spiritual societies naturally cluster
- Convergent eschatologies point to Middle East/Anatolia as World War III theater
This framework suggests we are witnessing not random conflicts but the systematic unfolding of deeply embedded religious and strategic logics that have governed human civilization for millennia.